Monday, 18 November 2013

What Does the Future Hold for Welsh Rugby?

Presently we are celebrating the delightful series win by the British and Irish Lions over Southern Hemisphere giants Australia, which has also come on the end of Wales winning the annual six nations competition with an inspirational win over arch rivals England. Welsh rugby have produced Lions in Justin Tipuric, Jamie Roberts, Alex Cuthbert, Ian Evans, Alyn Wyn Jones, Richard Hibbard and Leigh Halfpenny who can all arguably be products of the welsh development system. For Wales, there are also notable players who have been capped and have paid their presence in the Welsh Principality Premiership, players like Andrew Coombes, Tavis Knoyle and Dan Biggar who have emerged from the development system in Wales. Added to this, sell out capacity crowds at the millennium stadium, even at prices of £75 a ticket, Welsh Rugby is on the up right? It looks economically reassuring and the current players are looking good also, regardless of the mass exodus. New emerging talent is questionable with the recent tour to Japan, but more to the point, what about the state of grass roots rugby in Wales? Where are we now? And what does the future look like for Wales and other nations? I have taken a closer look at participation levels in rugby in Wales and across the globe, participation at grass roots level and at senior level.
So … Wales? A thriving rugby nation bubbling with talent and its children all fueled with passion and desire to lace their boots and get out and play the countries traditional national game? No. Although I cannot reveal the emotion of every child in Wales regarding rugby, I can attempt to provide a picture based on statistics. At the end of 2011 Wales had a population of 3,063,758 million people with 346,969 of that figure being of an age from 7-16, with 178,381 of this figure being male. The male market is arguably Wales’s target market for engaging grass roots rugby. In primary schools there were 163,278 people aged from 7 to 11 at the end of 2011. Sport Wales state that 50% [81,639] participated in rugby, with 64% [52,248] being male. In secondary schools there were 183,691 people aged between 12 and 16 at the end of 2011. Sport Wales reveal that there is a 44% [80,824] participation rate in rugby in any setting, with males contributing 75% [60,618] of this figure. Therefore, in total there is arguably a 32% participation rate in rugby among Welsh population aged 7-16, with 63% participation by males. These seem like average figures, ‘seem’ is the key word, as these figures by Sport Wales represent a person participating ‘once’, this does not represent a consistent sustainable outlook of participation in rugby. It would now prove to be a good time to introduce the International Rugby Board [IRB] statistics as a compare and contrast to possible miss leading statistics provided by Sport Wales. IRB issue that there were 50,557 registered players playing rugby in Wales, 44.3% were senior registered players. This leaves just over 55% [28,149] of players at grass roots level. Sport Wales identify 162,463 people aged 7-16 participating in rugby, but the IRB state only 28,149 are actually registered players. Now this is a more realistic figure to what our communities are experiencing in terms of grass roots rugby—disbanded mini sections, lack of fixtures and loosing talent to other sports. Let me quickly put this into context, of the 346,969 population of Wales aged 7-16, 28,149 are actual registered players, which is just 8% of the 7-16 year old's in Wales, Why? How? This is worrying if you ask me. If we compare this to the 2011 Rugby World Cup [RWC] winners New Zealand [NZ], who have 137,835 registered players of which 19.8% [27,374] are senior players, leaving just over 80% [110,461] of grass roots registered players, I find that incredible, fascinating and valuable.
Percentages can be misleading, but numbers are not. NZ have a foundation of 110,461 grass roots rugby players to choose from, Wales have 28,149, back to percentages, that’s 75% larger base of players. What delights me about rugby is the global growth, but this also scares me. The IRB report that since 2007 there has been an increase in registered rugby players in Europe by 22%, sounds great, however these increases are emerging from countries like Georgia, Russia, Romania and Italy. Rugby has risen 33% in Africa, 22% in South America and 18% in Asia. Great for the sport, but is this worrying for Wales as a rugby nation? My only worry is that when countries like China [population of 1,349,585,838], United States of America [USA] [population of 316,668,567], Russia [population of 142,500,482] and Japan [population of 127,253,075] continue to emerge in rugby and grow their expertise whilst tapping into their enormous population, utilising their resources—these countries will overshadow Northern Hemisphere teams like Wales [population of 3,063,758]. Sri Lanka, USA and Japan are already in the top 10 nations for registered participants, lets bare in mind of Japan’s recent win over Wales … granted first team players were away on Lions duty, but I think this is exactly my point. With 7’s now an Olympic sport, rugby is being taught as part of the school curriculum in China, USA and Russia. If these countries want Olympic domination then they will focus all efforts and resources to succeed at 7’s level first. We all know how big the HSBC 7’s series is, with events in Japan, USA, Hong Kong and Dubai with the recent 7’s RWC held in Russia. This shows how serious the IRB are about growing the game globally, and through the IRBs 10 year strategic plan to grow rugby globally—7’s is going to be the driving force. We have already seen Italy become part of the [now] Six Nations, and more recently Argentina in the [now] Rugby Championship. So is rugby participation on the decrease for Wales but on the rise globally? I think so. Wales show that there are opportunities to participate in rugby with large efforts made by Physical Educational [PE] teachers to enhance rugby through extra-curricular activity. Sport Wales promote rugby through the Dragon Sport [Primary School] and the 5x60 [Secondary School] schemes.
Rugby Player Numbers
The Welsh Rugby Union [WRU] have made admirable efforts by creating Rugby Participation Officers [RPO] that are placed into different regions all over Wales, in aim to drive up participation of rugby and raise awareness of the game. Is this enough? I am afraid not—if Wales want to keep up with global growth in rugby—then I believe drastic measures need to be done. Short term is maybe not the problem, 5 years and 10 years time Wales will get by, but 15 years and 20 years time, however, after four Olympic Games, we could be seeing rugby domination and increased competition from other nations. Is a different approach now needed to move rugby forward?

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